Nifty / Banknifty

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For the bears the last hope is at 5200X levels .. Bank Nifty may head to 10000-10200 levels

Our stops on Nifty were taken out with ease.. however BN headed higher and reached my target of 9800. Now to watch for weakness

These are based on the channel resistances. I'm still very sure that the markets dont have much more on the upside. This is just a hunch - Markets are supreme. We can only trade the technicals.

Banknifty hits the target as specified earlier.

Banknifty trading above 10080 will change the structure of this WW. and we can expect a bearish structure to form - Which means we will dip from 10080+ odd levels maybe 10100 or 200 to 8650 then head higher possibly to 11200 or so..

So key levels to watch are 10080.. No shorts on Nifty / Banknifty - A good trade would be when we head to 5200 and 10200 (channel resistances)

Nifty / Banknifty

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Nifty faces strong resistance at 5099-5100. This should ideally be the SL for shorts. Alternatively, it can test the channel resistance at 5150-80 to 5290 in which case this becomes a bearish crab - gartley pattern - see example below.

There is a hidden divergence on Macd & price shown on the chart & also falling momentum based on the histogram which indicates exhaustion / lack of momentum - for correction - targets in the range of 4871 & 4741 - Below 4800 Nifty will test 4400/4200.

I forgot to add - there's one more possibility - A test of 5132 - 5200 which are the 200 EMA and DMA

Example Bearish Crab if Nifty tests 5290~ levels - Since a bearish crab has a 327 - 361% implication of a BC leg for targets of D to be at 5290. SL @ 5100 for shorts.

Gaps are indicated on the chart with blue and red lines - these need to be filled.

Similar chart for Banknifty - divergences on MACD and a test of 9800-10000 is due. I expect reversal on the Banknifty post testing 9800-10000. Bank nifty seems to complete a 5 wave upmove in which the 5th wave is extended

Update long due!

We're in for a rally - refer my earlier post on Nifty, Bank Nifty and CNXIT

Here are some trades..use your own SL

The VIX is likely to head to 21 post which we should be in for a big big fall..

Right now I expect a 1000 pt move on BN - 400 points on Nifty which will take it to 5300

CNXIT should head upwards to 7300 or so with Infy leading the CNXIT index - heading to 3200-3300

Exit Tatamotor short above 206.5 and go long for 230

Hexaware should head to 90

Cipla to 380-400

ICICIBank to 800-840

Mphasis 100 rs up from here

Tatasteel 450-480 from here..100 rs ie.

DCB 45-47 from here..

All in all a bullish scenario which may end by 10th Feb as per time series.

Dow Jones, Nifty & Bank Nifty

Take a look at the Dow Jones chart. Multiple resistances around 12550 area.

I would suggest going short at 12500-12550 - SL 12650 - Above this SL DJI can head to 13000 odd levels - Target 10500 or lower

12500 co-incides with an 88% retracement (since this looks like an ABC structure) or an X wave which can retrace 88% at MAX.

Stochastics are overbought currently and this could be an excellent short.

Nifty

Seems more like a gartley formation with targets at 4860 or so. A correction (deep or shallow likely at these levels) which could stall at 4650 levels. Beyond 4950 - Nifty should head to test 5300.

Bank Nifty

Similar to Nifty could potentially head to 9500 if this WW holds good. Alternatively around 8600-8700 would be a place to watch out for any signs of reversal

CNXIT looks rather strong as well which could take it up to 7500. We had a breakout today and we need to watch for follow up action to see if previous resistances can be taken out.

Infy has a similar setup and so does Wipro - Id go long on these with targets of 3300 for Infy and 480-490 on Wipro.

Nifty

Possible outcome

Nifty, Bank Nifty and CNXIT

I'm posting what I may feel is the roadmap for Nifty - I expect 4300 or so shortly if we dont sustain above 4300 then we may head to 3900 / 3700

4300 can come by Feb end or earlier and we may then head up to 5600

In the case of Bank Nifty - things look worse. I expect a 7800 hit first and then move back up to 10000 or so and then collapse to 7200 / 6500

CNXIT on the other hand can make it to 7400

A close below 6000 can give it support at 5800 - below 5700 the index will crack . One can actually enter a short here with a SL @ 6379 on closing basis and build shorts below 5700

Nifty & Bank Nifty

Posting about the index after a long time - Times come for short build up's

We can head upto 5200 but this is the right time to start adding to shorts - targets 4500 - 4300

we may head to 4500 and then possibly up to 5600 - lets see how this unfolds.

banknifty is similar

we're headed for 7800 and then 10200

Nifty

We seem to be forming a bearish Bat Gartley pattern on the daily charts. In technical analysis, it is a complex price pattern based on Fibonacci  numbers/ratios. It is used to determine buy and sell signals by  measuring price retracements of a stock's up and down movement in  stock price.

The attached Gartley example shows a downtrend XA with a price reversal at A. Using  Fibonacci ratios, the retracement AB should be 38% to 88% of the price range A minus  X, as shown by line XB. At B, the price reverses again. Ideally, retracement BC  should be between 61.8% and 88% of the AB price range, in this case however it retraced close to 95%, and is shown along the line AC. At C, the price again reverses with  retracement CD between 127% and 161.8% of the range BC and is shown along the  line BD. Price D is the point to sell (bearish Gartley pattern) as  the price is about to increase/decrease.

Nifty

On a daily chart a downward sloping channel provides formidable resistance. A close about this on a daily time frame would mean a change in trend. I'd like to add some shorts here with a SL @ 5490


This would also mean that next year Nifty will be bullish and head to somewhere near 6800-7200

On a monthly timeframe you can see this pretty clearly

Nifty

Seems to me like a "M" Gartley with targets possibly upto 5345 / 5435

Id be cautious beyond 5480 mkts can head to 6600 / 6800 looks unlikely

Nifty Update

Posting an updated chart

We may head towards 5300 before any fall down. and from an extended pespective it could also head to 5451 which is 161% of 5160 to 4700

5300 is the Blue Trendline of the Head And Shoulder connecting bottoms and 5451 co-insides with the upper trendline

Notice the sloping trendline coming from the top - this will offer STRONG resistance - If you are looking to short these would be your levels

Nifty

Short 1/2 here at 5100 & short the other half at 5200 - targets @ 4850 / 4750

Nifty

So here's the post on Nifty - If we break out of that channel we can head up to 5150 / 5200

Alternatively we could correct to 4600-50 and then rise up to 5200 - Either way its up!

So long above 4950 for 5150 / 5200 and go short around those levels.

Nifty

Nifty over the next 8-9 months may witness a huge sell off - We may see 2009 lows near the range of 3000

Nifty

Nifty still in its downtrend - I'm now expecting targets of 3000 or lower.. which will take time to materialize.

Unfortunately, this fall has not indicated any good pull backs - any pull backs will be limited to 5200 / 5400 at most.

We may find some support at 4750 after which you can expect a brief bounce.. but any bounces should be used to exit any holdings in stocks.

Any bounce to 5200 should be shorted..

Nifty & Bank Nifty Update

Nifty has three gaps (5320, 5511 and 5438).. I've bought 1/2 quantity at 5395 today.. and plan to add more around 5320 / 5300.

If we gap down again tomorrow chances are that the downmove should arrest itself and we should see a rally upto 5550..

For now as long as today's low holds - the upmove may materialize for 5550. - 5500. Alternatively, we test 5300 and then most likely head to 5550.. As indicated by the red arrows.

The Blue arrows indicate possible outcomes should we hold 5378.

BANKNIFTY

Also showing a similar trend. However, there's only a minor downside gap at 10543 -- buy around 10500 and hold for targets of 11000-11100

Nifty

Part buy nifty here and at 5300 target 5500 - 5550

Nifty

Currently highly oversold - I'm expecting bounces to 5600 - 5650 - Above 5700 market likely to head to 5850. If we do reach here then a strong possibility of market heading to 6000-6100 Alternatively we head to 5650 then down to 5300 then up again..

The current correction took nifty to 50% retreacement (5460) or so.. indicating strength - Weekly is in sell currently so market may face resistance around 5680-70..

We still have an unfilled gap at 5320... We may see sideways movement - till then trade light..

some stocks are showing bearish possibilities while others are highly oversold - usually this indicates sideways movement of both stocks and the index.

Nifty

Cover any shorts that you have

Nifty

We booked out longs taken at 5540 at 5700 today..

Take a look at the chart - we need a decisive close above that trendline to move up - We can enter at the break of that trendline. Hedge any nifty long you have by buying september puts (5700/5600)

Above that trendline we may see 6000-6150